Trump's diesel deal with Putin: who really comes out ahead?

A deal that lets Russian diesel back into the global market is landing hard in Washington, and the fight over who benefits is getting louder. Rep. Gregory Meeks, the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wants Congress to kill it. The question he is putting on the table is simple: when Vladimir Putin gets a win, who pays for it at the pump?

On Friday, October 9, President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Putin would supply diesel to the United States and global markets. The announcement came after a phone call between the two leaders that same day. Trump said Putin would "immediately" release hundreds of thousands of tons. Reporting on the post described projections of 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, one million tons after that, and another three million tons later, depending on Russian refinery output, for a total above 4.8 million tons. The Kremlin's account of the call did not include any volume or timing details.

The same day, the Treasury Department said the Office of Foreign Assets Control was issuing a temporary general license "to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market." That license, General License 135, authorizes the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through April 7, 2027. It does not lift other U.S. sanctions on Russia, and it does not contain the volumes Trump cited. It also does not by itself confirm that any cargo has been arranged or delivered.

Financial markets moved fast. Diesel futures fell 4% on Friday, but they remained up more than 110% since the start of the year.

The deal follows a steep run in what Americans pay for diesel. According to AAA data as reported, the average U.S. diesel price rose from $3.76 per gallon at the start of the U.S.-Iran war to a record $6.52 on September 22. Midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, which has turned fuel costs into a pressure point for candidates. Republican candidates in competitive races, including Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, had urged the administration to ban U.S. diesel exports, and the Department of Agriculture asked the White House to intervene.